A New Axis of Power? How Russia, China and India Are Redefining Global Politics Under Trump’s Tariffs
By TN Ashok
youtube.com/@theflagpost
September 02, 2025
The SCO Moment: In late August 2025, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to China for the first time since 2018, welcomed by Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. With Vladimir Putin by their side, the optics were unmistakable: the leaders of three of the world’s most populous and militarily potent nations projecting solidarity.
This tableau arrives as U.S. President Donald Trump pursues his signature brand of economic nationalism—slapping 200% tariffs on Chinese exports, 50% on Indian goods, and fresh sanctions on Russia. The SCO, once a sleepy regional forum, suddenly looks like a vehicle for resisting U.S. economic coercion.
A Tariff-Driven Alignment: The SCO, founded in 2001 to fight terrorism in Central Asia, today represents nearly 40% of the world’s population and over a quarter of global GDP. Now, Trump’s tariff war has given it teeth. Modi, Xi, and Putin spoke in unison about “multipolarity” and “strategic autonomy,” language that signals defiance of Washington’s dominance. Russia remains under Western sanctions over Ukraine. Its survival hinges on redirecting oil to India and gas to China. The SCO is less a forum than a lifeline.
China reels under U.S. tariffs and tech restrictions. Xi is pushing alternative trade corridors, yuan- based settlements, and energy ties with Russia and India. India—long courted by Washington as a counterweight to China—now finds itself punished with tariffs on IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles. Modi has responded not with capitulation but by showcasing independence on the SCO stage. This is less an alliance of ideology than one of necessity, born of shared resistance to U.S. pressure.
America’s Miscalculation: Trump’s tariffs were designed to protect American jobs and weaken rivals. Instead, they risk backfiring.
Eroding Unipolarity – By pushing Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi closer, the U.S. faces the nightmare of a Eurasian bloc commanding energy, manufacturing, and military clout.
Trade Diversion – As SCO trade grows, U.S. exporters may be squeezed out of fast-expanding markets.
Dollar Challenge – With Russia pushing the ruble, China the yuan, and India experimenting with rupee settlements, de-dollarization no longer looks fanciful.
Alienating Allies – Tariffs on India, a supposed “natural partner” in the Indo-Pacific, risk undoing two decades of U.S. diplomatic courtship.
Europe on Edge: For Europe, the new alignment is both economic and strategic trouble. NATO dependence deepens as Russia grows bolder with Asian backing. Meanwhile, European exporters face a shrinking share in Asian markets increasingly dominated by intra-SCO trade. Brussels had hoped India would be a “swing partner” in Asia. If New Delhi leans too far east, Europe risks losing its most promising democratic ally in the region.
The Middle East Pivot: The SCO has also opened doors in the Middle East. Iran, now a full member, gains legitimacy and markets despite U.S. sanctions. India secures oil routes and port access without Washington’s veto. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf are hedging—maintaining ties to Washington while exploring SCO and BRICS as alternatives. A Russia–Iran–China energy framework, with India as a buyer, could one day undercut America’s role in oil markets.
South Asia and the Global South: Closer to home, India’s defiance has ripple effects. Pakistan welcomes Chinese patronage but fears India’s rising profile within the SCO. Afghanistan, though outside, depends on SCO trade routes for connectivity. Smaller South Asian states view India’s resistance to Washington as proof that even middle powers can withstand U.S. pressure. In Africa and Latin America, Modi’s stance resonates. Leaders from Brazil to South Africa speak openly about multipolarity and South-South solidarity. For Southeast Asia, India offers a model of hedging that avoids binary choices between Washington and Beijing.
What India Gains: Energy Security through Russian and Iranian crude. Strategic Autonomy, proving it will not be cowed by U.S. tariffs. Prestige as a swing power, able to engage both East and West. Domestic Credibility, as Modi presents defiance as national strength.
What America Risks: India’s Trust, undermining the Indo-Pacific strategy. Economic Leverage, as India diversifies away from U.S. markets. Moral Authority, with tariffs and sanctions seen less as strategy and more as bullying. Geopolitical Ground, as Eurasia consolidates beyond U.S. influence.
Cracks in the Axis: The trio is hardly seamless. India and China remain at odds over their Himalayan frontier. Russia resents dependence on Beijing. India mistrusts the Belt and Road. Economic asymmetries loom large: China’s GDP dwarfs those of India and Russia combined. “This is a marriage of convenience, not conviction,” as one European diplomat put it. “Remove U.S. tariffs, and the cracks will show.”
Conclusion: A Multipolar Warning
The SCO summit will be remembered less for its declarations than its symbolism: Modi, Xi, and Putin standing together, united not by ideology but by resistance to Washington. The “Axis of Necessity” may not be permanent, but it is already reshaping global trade and diplomacy. For the U.S., the danger is clear—tariffs meant to enforce dominance may instead hasten its decline as uncontested hegemon. America still wields unmatched military and financial power. But legitimacy now comes from partners—and Washington is running short.
