By Devsagar Singh
New Delhi
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September 18, 2025
As stirrings over the controversial Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of Bihar voters’ list settle down, albeit slowly, political parties of the two major formations have begun to look deeper into what could be a game changer.
With the assembly elections in the state hardly two months away, the most visible face so far has been Leader of Opposition in Parliament Rahul Gandhi apart , of course, from RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav. They are raring to go at the head of the eight-party Mahagathbandhan even as the BJP-JDU-LJP combine exude confidence in the run up to the polls. It is time now to finalize distribution of seats among the NDA and Mahagathbandhan constituents in the state politics.
The usual squabbling over seat sharing has yet to begin, but there are indications the Congress will settle for no less than 70 seats it contested last time, no matter it won only 19. The RJD will be the major partner for sure hogging maximum number but smaller parties have to be taken care of too. Last time the RJD won 75 seats out of 144 it contested, emerging as the single largest party. The NDA had in 2020 returned to power by winning 125 seats as against the Mahagathbandhan’s 110 which was largely attributed to Congress’ poor strike rate . Seat sharing is going to be no easy exercise this time round. Rahul Gandhi’s heady campaign has given hope to party workers that the party can do better if it properly handles the selection of seats.
The BJP and JDU are seemingly quiet, giving an impression that all is well with the NDA. Scratch the surface, however, and reality bites. There are discernible undercurrents of one-upmanship in the BJP, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s smiles , notwithstanding. JDU circles fear that the BJP will overtake it soon.
Nitish Kumar is no longer the trump card he used to be, given his reduced stature and sinking image coupled with perceived age-related illness. He is said to have decided to field his son whose political innings have yet to begin.
For the upcoming Bihar polls, PM Narender Modi is bound to be the BJP’s mascot again. Along with Nitish Kumar, he will try to sway the voters. It remains to be seen how much he succeeds. There are limits to which Modi can charm voters, some say. His strength and weakness will be in direct proportion to that of Lalu and Tejashwi Yadav. Reports suggest that the minority Muslim community and the Yadav’s firmly continue to support the RJD. Much depends upon where the OBC and EBC (extremely backward castes) go. BJP is credited with the view that the EBCs (read Dalits) who constitute a sizeable chunk will support the party because of Modi. OBCs are expected to be divided with Congress looking up in the state.
As always, caste will be a major factor. All major parties are expected to field candidates of the dominant caste in practically every constituency. Communal polarization is minimal in Bihar, barring exceptional situations. As of today, there is nothing polarizing communally. A section of the BJP has been claiming infiltration of Bangladeshi nationals in the Seemanchal region indirectly seeking to play the communal card. But it does not work beyond a few districts in the border areas which are mostly RJD bastions.
The Jan Suraaj Party of noted pollster Prashant Kishore is trying to prove its mettle in his debut elections, but sources do not give it much of a chance. Whose votes will it cut, any way? This is the question people are asking as of now. According to political observers, he may get some votes from upper caste voters, thereby inflicting minor damage to the BJP. However, the impact would be minimal, it is said.
Veteran RJD leader and former Chief Minister Lalu Yadav is not keeping too well to campaign for his party extensively. A plethora of court cases against him and his family members have kept him down.
